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Amid recent reports covering both the anticipated record holiday spend of $275.1 billion – despite leaner retail inventory, as covered in a recent RetailWire discussion – comes a new Challenger, Gray & Christmas report suggesting that a “smaller and more surgical” holiday hiring trend was in evidence.
As HR Dive’s Lara Ewen detailed, the Challenger data indicates that U.S. seasonal hiring is projected to dip by 2.5% year-over-year in 2026, with the new jobs figure being notched at ~450,000 in the fourth quarter. Challenger stated that “only a handful of companies” had thus far revealed their hiring figures, and that the “pattern of quieter announcements suggests retailers are again planning to lean on existing staff and on-demand pools rather than committing to large seasonal waves this early.”
Among those highlighted who had disclosed at least some details around their seasonal hiring were Spirit Halloween (planning to hire in excess of 52,000 seasonal employees in the U.S. and Canada); Michaels, intending to hire more than 10,000 seasonal associates while also noting that nearly half of last year’s seasonal hires had taken on full-year roles; and Bass Pro Shops and Cabela’s, with both signaling an upcoming nationwide hiring event sometime this month.
Other signals derived from the Challenger, Gray & Christmas data:
The COVID-19 era may have produced a paradigm shift in seasonal hiring: Even though preliminary BLS figures from August illustrated a total retail workforce of 15.47 million, up approximately 63,000 versus 2025’s figures, this is often a bolstered accounting due to summer hiring – dropping as students return to their studies. “But almost every hiring announcement we’ve seen in the last three years is smaller and more surgical than the pre-pandemic playbook,” Andy Challenger, CRO for Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. “Even if the big names come in at last year’s numbers, the total will likely fall well short of the 2019–2021 peaks.”
This hiring downturn comes on the back of a record-setting tumble last year: Seasonal hiring registered its smallest seasonal gain since 2008 last year, tumbling 15% YoY versus the 543,100 jobs added in the fourth quarter of 2024. That year kicked off what Challenger termed as a shift “toward flexible, on-demand staffing models.”
'Surgical' Staffing Plans Could Be a Continuing Trend
Andy Challenger continued to state that the ongoing price hikes on retail shelves and continuing tariff pressures were significant factors in retailers being more hesitant on seasonal hiring.
“It’s more about restocking staffing plans surgically than a return to the 900,000-plus seasonal hiring years we saw in 2020 and 2021,” he said.
“The deepening pain from high energy costs may continue into the holiday season, and consumers may contract spending. That said, August retail sales jumped 1.2%, and there’s no sign of a major spending pullback. But that resilience is not translating into large, early hiring commitments from the biggest retailers,” he concluded.
Questions for further discussion:
Are declining seasonal hires in retail a worrisome sign? Or are they merely a reflection of a new paradigm, or a reaction to macroeconomic stressors (or both)? What pitfalls are most obvious to avoid for retailers?
Do you believe retail hiring (seasonal or otherwise) will rebound in the near future? Why or why not?
Which retailers should be taking initiative to have more associates on the floor than they might currently, in your opinion or experience? Which are adequately staffed?