Humans Need Not Apply

By Bill Bittner, President, BWH Consulting

I combined the subjects of many of the articles in the latest Economist Technology Quarterly with some of RetailWire’s recent discussions on “entry level employment” to reach a disturbing conclusion…Read on.

Many of the Economist articles describe advances in the fields of automation, robotics, artificial intelligence and voice recognition.


  • The Humanoids on the March article describes the advances that are being made in the creation of robots, which are able walk upright and grasp things in their “hands” much the same as humans.
  • In AI and the Law, the author describes how tests of artificial intelligence to provide legal advice and render decisions has led to more appropriate and consistent results than what often comes from attorneys and judges.
  • Finally, The Talking Cure describes the effort to create dedicated “voice recognition chips” as has been done with video chips that offload the voice processing so the PC can remain focused on problem solving. These voice recognition chips would allow the computer to accept commands verbally without slowing down the current processing.

One of the big pushes for NASA over the next 10 years is to be the increased use of robotics for space travel. The agency will continue to develop more sophisticated units that can be used in place of human explorers. Many of these devices will require the capability to exercise “free will” as they operate in remote areas where real time command from earth is impossible. They will have to be able to recognize and respond to the environment they encounter.

Automation and robotics have already proliferated across the consumer spectrum and in business. ATM’s, automated checkouts, and self-serve gas stations have all had an impact on the “entry level” job market.

More sophisticated uses for robotics have had an impact on higher paying manufacturing and service jobs, as well. Robotic dispensing systems are said to fill prescriptions at rates multiple times faster than human pharmacists and do it without making mistakes.

From a business standpoint, there is a lot to commend in the potential use of robotics. Robots don’t organize (at least not yet), they don’t require a salary or health benefits. It is no wonder that businesses wanting to reduce costs have turned to automation.

But robots don’t pay taxes, coach little league teams or participate in community volunteerism, such as the fire company or auxiliary police and, oh yes, they don’t shop in stores.

Moderator’s Comment: Is there a point in the development of technology where society’s need to “encourage full employment” must override the economics
of automation? Is it a proper role for government to encourage the use of people in place of automation?

Thinking about this whole subject makes my head hurt. I am generally not for government intervention and would prefer that the “free hand of the market
place” dictate how business is conducted. But in this case, I really feel there is a role for government. It seems a simple approach would be some kind of tax on robots. If they
are going to be generating revenue, shouldn’t they also be contributing to society? By putting a tax on automation, we raise its cost to the business (all businesses) which may
shift the economics back to human workers. The only robots exempt from this tax would be the ones replacing attorneys (just kidding).

Bill Bittner – Moderator

BrainTrust

Discussion Questions

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Mark Burr
Mark Burr
18 years ago

I’d like to take a bit of a different tact on this issue. Since the rapid onset of technology that has impacted businesses of all types, there has also been an equally rapid change in society as a whole. It certainly leads one to question the benefit. Now certainly, don’t misunderstand that I would wish a return to the days of Ozzie and Harriet or ‘The Beaver’, but, unquestionably, society was different.

Growing up surrounded by the auto industry, I have witnessed in my own lifetime what automation, poor management and competition can do to an industry. In fact, it exists yet today with GM’s announcement this week of huge losses. In its hay day (during the period of my youth), GM was a powerhouse of passion for cars. It employed thousands upon thousands. Communities where they resided thrived and grew. Well, we all know what’s happened since then. At the time, there was a saying, ‘So goes GM, so goes the country.’ Seems laughable now doesn’t it? But should it?

So what’s my point? No matter what the advances of technology, missing from it are the absence of passion and the human spirit. So, the saying, ‘So goes GM, so goes the country,’ really does have a meaning. It’s visible in their vehicles and visible in the towns left behind. Is at the root of it the changes in technology? Yes. That is indeed part of it, but its side effect is a loss of passion and human spirit.

The government’s roll can only be limited as it is really a business role to change our directions and perception regarding the human factor as it relates to the advancement of technology. There has been far too much emphasis upon cost savings via technology rather than the real potential of its improvements. In reductions of costs, it’s always directed at the human side. Likely the best advancements in technology are those that permit better quality and better service. Those areas require human cooperation rather than human separation.

The results that we have today are less of a community, a different work ethic, lower rates of volunteerism, etc. One might have expected that these opportunities would have changed due to the increased efficiencies. But have they really been gained? We seem to have less time; we are seemingly less productive and more blurred across lines both in our lives and our work. This is not all positive and I could make the argument that, while huge advances have changed our lives, it’s not all been for the good.

What do we do about it? We consider not just cost savings as a motivating factor. We consider the human factor, the benefit to the customer, the improvement to quality…then the cost savings. Sometimes, it might be better to consider the top line that can be gained as a result. Government can certainly encourage the use of people, but business needs to consider the real benefits. When the human factors of passion and spirit are absent, it lends itself to a breeding ground of mediocrity. Greatness comes when you maximixe all factors, including technology, human spirit and human passion towards the same goals and purposes.

Bernice Hurst
Bernice Hurst
18 years ago

Good on ya, Jeff. You can have my vote any old time. Passion is always the winner.

Jeff Weitzman
Jeff Weitzman
18 years ago

Those of you who think robots are probably only going to be suited to repetitive, simple tasks haven’t seen the cutting edge of robotics! And the comment above about customer service suffering when technology is applied? Not so fast! Recent robotics shows have featured receptionist robots, for example. They listen, they talk, they never act bored, they are always pleasant, they always provide correct information… You get the idea…

Scanner decries the loss of passion that came with the reduction of human labor in the auto industry, but I believe that passion simply moved elsewhere. Here in Silicon Valley, people drip with passion. (Some people drip with other stuff, too.) Walk the halls at Google, for example, and tell me you don’t get the sense that its employees truly believe they are engaged in a great effort to make the world a better place. I saw that passion at Yahoo! when I worked there and saw it when the employees created a charitable foundation to help others, and volunteered their time in local schools. I see it in the Little League coaches too, and in every day conversations in restaurants and on the street.

Passion is in the people, not the industry. Automation doesn’t kill it at all, lack of vision does. Do you think there would be any lack of passion at GM if the CEO declared that the company’s highest priority would be to drag the country, nay the world, kicking and screaming toward energy independence using all of its resources and the best and brightest engineering minds in the world? You’d be swimming in passionate talent in no time!

I disagree that a tax is wholly inappropriate, though it is quite impractical. As pointed out above, taxes support services for people. When a machine replaces a worker, that ex-worker now uses a greater portion of society’s services. Maybe think about eliminating the tax deduction for the expense, at least. But here’s a better idea: accept that we’ll need fewer workers and start encouraging family planning! (A great intake of breath is heard throughout the land….where are your VALUES, man? What have you got against people of faith, you evil sinner?!) Imagine an uncrowded, gentler world…. OK, not so simple!

John Rand
John Rand
18 years ago

Great discussion!

When there are more people than there are meaningful jobs, then the system we’ve evolved to distribute wealth is broken.

Nothing we have ever experienced as a society is designed to let people take a direct personal benefit from the efficiency of the overall system. The closest we come is to pay welfare and unemployment, and both are stigmatized, and under constant political attack. We don’t fund health care or retirement willingly – how will we transition to funding entire lives? Will everybody be richer for all this efficiency? Or will most of us be poor?

David Berg
David Berg
18 years ago

Robots generate profits for businesses, and those businesses pay taxes on those profits. I don’t see a need for a special tax.

Humans pay taxes to pay for the services we consume (police, fire, libraries, Medicare, Social Security, etc). Until robots start using those services, there’s no reason for them to pay taxes for them.

Robots don’t coach little league games, nor do I think I want them to. But if I have a robot to do my chores around the house, then maybe I’ll have more time to get out and coach little league.

As far as ‘full employment’ – that experiment has been tried several times and failed every time. How many buggy whip manufacturers should we employ? How many firemen should we have on a diesel train to shovel coal?

Giving people meaningless jobs is not the ticket to happiness or prosperity. Assuming we have the money to pay people to do nothing, then why not just give them the money and let them go do something worthwhile (like coaching little league or inventing faster than light space ships)? It’s better than chaining them to a desk and insisting they produce something that they know a robot could do better and faster. Which is more humane?

Al McClain
Al McClain
18 years ago

I don’t think taxing new technology is the solution to this complex problem, as the government has a way of making things worse that they intend to make better – see this week’s stories on TSA and Homeland Security. There will be opportunities for businesses who rely on people versus machines for customer service – i.e. JetBlue versus American Airlines and Trader Joe’s versus supermarkets with self-checkout. Unfortunately, the consequences of automation include poor customer service, as in all the voice recognition systems that save businesses millions by eliminating jobs but force customers through series of mind-numbing prompts. And, entry-level workers will have to be more flexible in what they’re willing to do to get started.

Rick Moss
Rick Moss
18 years ago

Automation and technology are already so integrated into our work lives, I can’t imagine how government could ever regulate how machines replace humans (and thank goodness for that). Think about it. Businesses used to employ human messengers; now we have telephones, faxes and email. Do we tax phones because they replace human workers? How do you define a “robot”? Probably the most sophisticated and ubiquitous replacement of human workers is the PC. When I was first involved with publishing, there were big production offices filled with rows of workers at drafting tables pasting up magazine pages. They’re all gone, thanks to desktop technology. Do we throw out the graphics software and bring back the paste-up people?

Progress marches on. Use humans for what they do best…relating to other humans. Leave the grunt work to the machines.

Warren Thayer
Warren Thayer
18 years ago

It’s a disturbing question. I fear a tax on robots would send even more jobs and business spending offshore. Use the robots in the Far East or wherever, and avoid the tax and find cheaper human labor (if needed) at the same time. Over the long haul, the trends are disturbing. It feels like we’re coming to accept the existence of a permanent underclass as just an unfortunate byproduct of technology. Hey, it’s not “us,” right? Reminds me of those famous words by Martin Niemoller, the German anti-Nazi activist: “…Then they came for the Jews, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Jew…. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn’t speak up because I was a Protestant… Then they came for me — and by that time no one was left to speak up.” It would be terrific if more people started speaking up and trying to come up with long-term solutions. But I don’t think enough of the people in charge of things have learned from Niemoller.

David Livingston
David Livingston
18 years ago

Currently, I don’t see a point in the future where society encourages full employment in place of automation. Right now, we have a severe labor shortage in this country. Millions of jobs go unfilled because we don’t have the educated warm bodies to fill the needs. We must import millions of illegal aliens to perform the tasks that are beneath us. There are shortages of nurses and teachers – jobs robots cannot fill. Perhaps if we had more robots, the people they displace would opt in to the professions where we suffer huge labor shortages. That could be in both the professional fields or menial labor. As far as the government’s role? I think we should replace most of our government officials with robots. I wouldn’t mind sending a few Robocops down to the city to crack a few heads.

Stuart Silverman
Stuart Silverman
18 years ago

Whoa Bill – you’re getting way ahead of yourself!

I have had the opportunity to see robots in action at the Mercedes plant in Stuttgart – and it was very impressive how the robots could see which model they were working on and where to apply the adhesives to attach a windshield with higher degree of accuracy than an individual person could do. But my guess is that there were a limited number of options that needed to be programmed for.

In the 70’s and 80’s I had occasion to visit a number of automated warehouses – essentially big vending machines – that were eventually dismantled. Why didn’t they work? The party line was because of the double handling required to manually fill the slots. The big picture issue here is really that the variety of items, sizes, packaging all caused havoc on the vending machine.

I think that we may see robots doing small repetitive tasks in our stores and DC’s over time. As an example, you should see what B&H Photo does in NYC – they are essentially a catalog store with all the stock in the back room and they use mechanization – with conveyor belts in clear visibility to everyone in the store – to deliver the stock to the consumer. In reality it is much more of a promotional message to the consumer – this is how we provide low costs and high service levels

But generally, our stores need to be fresh, newly merchandised, with ever changing assortments that surprise and delight the consumer. The vending machine approach, whether it is in the DC or customer facing just does not say new and exciting.

And there are just too many variables to program for.

Herb Sorensen, Ph.D.
Herb Sorensen, Ph.D.
18 years ago

Since the first division of labor, and increasing productivity, there have been those who were against freeing humans from the drudgery that has made life meaningful – up till now! That is, people find meaning and value in the status quo, including pumping gas. What we have to look forward to is the time when one person can provide comfortably for all the physical needs of 100 (including technology and every other need.) What will the other 99 do? If basic food, clothing and housing all become “free” because their cost is so inconsequential (public restrooms don’t charge for toilet paper, soap and water even now) what will we DO? How will “wealth” be distributed?

I don’t know, except that we will evolve the business and social systems necessary to allow people to spend their time being productive in possibly more creative ways. After all, hundreds of millions of people are even now facing long and prosperous retirements. Sure, not everyone is. But increasing health and better retirement preparation is creating a class that will need all those robots. No problems, mates. It’s just the next round of life!

George Anderson
George Anderson
18 years ago

I doubt we’ll ever see where society’s need to encourage full employment will override the economic benefits of automation, unless of course, someone develops software, a robot or other machine that eliminates the need for human CEOs and other top managers. 😉

Dan Gilmore
Dan Gilmore
18 years ago

There was a famous “Twilight Zone” episode (the orginal Rod Serling series) in which some future CEO is shown commanding a large manufacturing company that somehow has automated away all of the jobs. In the end, it’s just him and the machines…

Trying to outlaw automation will never work, especially in a global economy. Unions try to block it to some extent, and may forestall some automation/job loss in a given plant for awhile, but eventually, if barriers to automation are present, then plants just shut down. There is a parallel here to concerns about offshore manufacturing – if barriers are put in place to stop that, then domestic companies will just automate to reduce labor costs, and the result will be much the same.

Already, something like 200,000 airline counter agent jobs have been replaced by self-service kiosks. The same is happening in call centers due to web ordering and voice system technology. In 10 years, self checkout at retail will be commonplace, replacing cashiers in many retail formats (grocery and mass merchandise). Beyond ATM machines, we now see some banks with remote tellers via video.

The bottom line: if your job can be eliminated from information technology, it will be eventually. Service and human touch will still create a need for people, but in the end you better be on the creative/knowledge side of the job if you don’t want to be replaced.