Experts: Kmart Not Long for This World


By George Anderson
There’s a scene in Monty Python and The Holy Grail where a cart is pushed through a village carrying people who have died. The cart-master calls out, “Bring out your dead!” as they move through the village.
A villager carrying an old man approaches the cart-master and says he has a dead person for the cart. The old man being carried has another assessment of his deadness, protesting, “I’m not dead!” and “I’m getting better.”
For many retail watchers, the scene played out in this movie has a striking similarity to what has been happening at Kmart.
Despite the protests of the old man to the contrary, it wasn’t long before the lure of money from another source (the villager carrying the soon-to-be-deceased) was enough for the cart-master to hit the old timer over the head with a club and add him to the pile of former people already there.
Since the merger last year with Kmart, the retail chain has made numerous announcements about its impending comeback with little evidence to support it. Now, many wonder, how long will it be before its cart-master (AKA Edward Lampert, chairman of Sears Holdings) shuts off the lights once and for all.
Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, told The Detroit News, “The Kmart brand name is gone. If you were going to keep a brand, you wouldn’t be closing more stores. (Sears) is going to milk this brand for everything that it’s worth, and then it’s going to disappear.”
“It’s never been about driving customers,” Mr. Davidowitz added. “This is about realizing cash from a cadaver and getting the most from your assets. As far as a retail entity … it’s looking like a failed retail enterprise that can never compete on the retail battlefield.”
In September, Mr. Lampert issued a statement concerning the approach the company intended to take with Kmart and Sears. “We intend to build on the historic strengths of both companies, while overcoming some of the more recent weaknesses.”
While a small number of Kmarts around the country are testing the sale of Sears branded products, such as Craftsman and Kenmore, in stores, no Sears locations have taken on Kmart exclusive brands, such as Martha Stewart Everyday, a year after the merger between the two struggling retailers was completed.
Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Gary Balter recently wrote that the lack of customer traffic at many Sears Holdings locations is setting the stage for “major real estate sale.”
“Bring out your dead.”
Moderator’s Comment: Are Kmart and Sears beyond the point of reviving? What would it take to keep them from following Two Guys, Alexander’s, Bradlees,
etc. into the place where defunct retailers go?
Ulysses Yannas, an analyst with Buckman, Buckman & Reid, thinks it will take topnotch people to get Kmart and Sears turned around.
As for his assessment of the people currently attempting that, “I don’t think they have the right people in place to improve a tough situation.”
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George Anderson – Moderator
- Marriage of faded icons may spell end of Kmart – The Detroit News
- Bring Out Your Dead – Monty Python’s Completely Useless Web Site
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14 Comments on "Experts: Kmart Not Long for This World"
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All retailers, just as do consultants, think all retailers mortal, but themselves. With an unusual new owner in Ed Lempert, we still have to see if he can do for Sears, and even Kmart, what he has accomplished in those businesses that afforded him the opportunity to buy Sears/Kmart … but the clock is ticking.
Oh No! The Place Of Defunct Retailers (PODR)! (Legends say it’s near the Elephant graveyard, but who knows for sure?)
For George Anderson, I absolutely loved your opening Monty Python analogy.
My view of the PODR is that it’s populated by small and large retailers alike, many of them victims of the Wal-Mart sprawl. Why is it that we deeply examine the possible demise of a Kmart, yet disregard the thousands of small businesses that die each year? I have a deep affinity for Kmart – counting Chicago’s S.S. Kresge Co. as my first customer in my first business while still a college senior – but things change. Kmart still owns real estate and brands, and will exit with dignity, if at all. Isn’t that all one can hope for?
And for Mark Lilien, it’s Christmas, not Xmas. You could look it up.
Dead man (read Sears) walking! They don’t have time for trial and error. They are groping for a strategy that will work. We are entering a period of time when the Sears target customer is being squeezed by higher interest rates, higher heating and gasoline costs, increasing inflation and rising medical expenses. The competition for this customer’s expenditures will be fierce. In this type of economy, Darwin’s natural selection will prevail. Between Wal-Mart, Target, JC Penny, Home Depot, Lowes, and Sears, who do you think will survive?
I wouldn’t dig Sears’ grave just yet. The two stores I visited recently were packed with shoppers. Soft goods were mercifully down to minimal square footage and Sears’ strength in hard lines was being exploited for all it was worth. Plenty of friendly, helpful, smartly-uniformed staff, and easily the busiest department store in the mall (versus a May store and JCPenney).
Kmart and Sears will slowly fade away as they struggle to establish themselves in a world of EDLP and Hi-Lo pricing. This will mean that unless they dramatically change, they will be overcome by their competition (Home Depot, Wal-Mart, Target, etc.) This is also a great example of a union where the value of the parts is greater than the whole. With each passing quarter, this will serve as a chisel dividing the company’s shareholders until there is little choice but to sell the parts of the organization to maximize shareholder value.
Since he’s an outsider, it’s easy to make fun of Eddie Lampert and belittle his capabilities as an executive of a retail enterprise. But there’s no doubt that he’s a supersmart guy, and maybe his outsider perspectives are exactly what Kmart and Sears need.
I’m willing to give the guy a chance, and I’m very interested to see what kinds of strategies and tactics he’ll employ. It surely won’t be the same old stuff. Whether he succeeds or fails, the retail world needs smart outsiders like him to try new approaches and learn from them.
This question will be a lot easier to answer after Xmas. Let’s see what the comp sales and profits will be for the only quarter that matters. Sears and Kmart were run by expert Sales Prevention leaders for a generation. Maybe it will take some time for the chemotherapy to kill the Sale Prevention culture. Of course, sometimes the chemotherapy kills, and sometimes it is too late.
As far as bringing Martha to Sears, that might not be permissible or profitable under the license agreement. Yes, the brand helped the Kmart image, but it isn’t clear that it was actually a profit generator. I’ve worked with both licensees and licensors. Often the terms are so expensive or so restricted that profit potential is minimized.
Even though the words were spoken there will be no return for Sears and/or Kmart. They will live on in department store heaven. This was a real estate play, plain and simple — although a big one. Sears had a great name and private label line, but was out of tune with younger shoppers. Kmart simply got run out of business by Wal-Mart. The culture, organization structure and operational design will not be able to return to glory. These are two companies that thought they were great and at one time they were. They failed to change, got inbred and lost touch.