Benefits from a program like Target Circle will only come nationally if Target adapts the program to local demographics. To put the program in perspective, the retailer is providing $1 for every $100 spent. Not sure that is enough incentive to switch even a modestly satisfied customer from a competitor, especially in middle, middle to upper, middle America.
Shopping as a delivery mechanism will adapt. Remember the classic catalog store/showroom stores, like Best Products? Grocers and other retail outlets may take a similar approach to help better control inventory. Instead of visiting a store to select a product that will be delivered on a set of conveyor belts, consumers create their initial requests online or in-app, then pick up their order at a smaller concept store or delivery center. Many grocers are testing this basic concept today with curbside pickup options. The next step will be outlets that only offer pickup. Sure, there will be full service stores too, just fewer and farther between.