All categories lifted by the stay-at-home lifestyle - toys, groceries, alcohol, web cameras, home and lawn care - will remain strong in 2021. Even with ongoing vaccinations it will not be until the second half of the year at best until it becomes safer to return to more traditional forms of work and schooling. And even then a large portion of employees will continue working from home due to convenience, natural acceptance across the society and habits formed over two years. Toys and especially games is one of these categories: families spend more time at home together.
A more interesting question is the metrics. Is YTY KPI a good measure of success? Would benchmarking across channels and competitors make more sense than comparison to prior years? Do you have enough data and granular analytics tools to do it?
Until March according to 10data’s data, Instacart added about 19% of new users a month. Over March and April the number jumped up to 46% but the trend stopped and returned to 20% in May. It is still a healthy growth given that over 69% of new users added last year stayed, but it may be a bit different with those who only joined due to the lockdown situation. History will show how many will stay after the full re-opening.
The restaurants will take a long time to get to pre-crisis capacity: reduced business meals and travel, sanitary restrictions, remaining health concerns among certain segments, bankruptcies -- all of it will contribute. So a higher share of stomach may last for a while. But at the same time, it does necessarily translate into more cash due to protective measures to fund, small CPG brands going out of business, and reductions in many non-essential categories that may go on for a while.
The best thing retailers can do is to invest in better visibility and analysis of trends in customer behavior that is changing very fast and often has a local nature. And to rewire the category management and supply chain to base decisions on recent data.