NRF: Good Vibrations at the BIG Show

The mood on the floor of the NRF Show was decidedly upbeat this year as exhibitors and attendees pointed to continuing, albeit moderate, economic improvement in the U.S. There was also a general feeling, expressed by Walmart’s Bill Simon in his address to the convention, that retailers in a post-election environment were no longer going to wait for hoped-for changes in the nation’s capital and instead make the investments necessary to drive their businesses forward.

As in the past, RetailWire (in an unscientific manner) asked people at the show to gauge their optimism (or lack thereof) for the retail industry’s prospects in the upcoming year compared to where they were at this time in 2012.

In last year’s poll, 34 percent said they were much more optimistic while 56 percent were somewhat more optimistic. Only three percent of BIG Show attendees in 2012 were less optimistic.

By contrast, 41 percent at this year’s show were much more optimistic, 51 percent were somewhat more optimistic and eight percent were neither more nor less optimistic. None were less optimistic about the industry’s outlook for 2013.

nrf about you

The single biggest caveat associated with 2013’s prospects from those speaking with RetailWire was whether or not the Republican majority in Congress would vote to fund America’s debts or default. Even those who self-identified as political conservatives said a default would be extremely harmful to the economy. Almost all, however, said the budget deficit was a separate issue on which both political parties needed to compromise for the nation’s benefit in the year ahead.

While mentioned less frequently, Mother Nature was also given as a wildcard factor for 2013. Sources spoke to last year’s drought in the Midwest and Hurricane Sandy as weather events with far-ranging effects on retailing and the economy.

BrainTrust

Discussion Questions

How much more or less optimistic are you about the retail industry’s prospects for the coming year? What factors inside and out of the industry do you think will be most important in how retail performs in 2013?

Poll

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Ralph Jacobson
Ralph Jacobson
11 years ago

Great seeing the RetailWire Team at the show. I agree with the optimism across the show. I think the mobile shopper evolution will continue this year, creating even more selling opportunities for both retailers and CPG companies. Many new platforms for shopping, payment and other experiential aspects will launch and quietly crash. The dust may begin to settle on industry standards in the next 18 months or so.

P.S., Thanks for the nice photo of the IBM Booth. Always busy, for sure!

P.P.S., It was great to see so many CPG companies in our booth, too. NRF has now become the world’s largest CPG event, actually.

Kevin Graff
Kevin Graff
11 years ago

We were at the show too! Our booth was busier than ever, and the ‘mood’ was very positive. We deal with Store Ops folks, and they were all expressing positive results and were certainly looking for new ways to drive up store sales this year. All in all, it was a great show!
Thanks RW for dropping by … and for the shiny pin!

Al McClain
Al McClain
11 years ago

The sense I got was that attendees were more optimistic that the economy is on solid ground and things are moving along pretty well. In my own neck of the woods—southeast Florida—we’re seeing more construction, and new retailers opening up in space that had been vacant for several years.

As a sidenote, it seemed that most tech companies at the show were focusing on the “seamless shopping experience” in one way or another, with retailers of all stripes seeking ways to connect with shoppers online, offline, and on their mobile devices.

Roger Saunders
Roger Saunders
11 years ago

The overriding factor for the industry has to be how effectively they can make the consumer the center of the retail equation. The consumer will be working through a payroll tax change that amounts to about $120 billion dollars—FICA benefits have to be paid first. Food costs are going to go up. So are costs related to health care and taxes; energy is a toss-up factor.

Consumers have done a much more effective job of deleveraging their debt than government agencies. Those who are fortunate enough to be working, or want to work, will be loosening up spending this year, but they learned some tough lessons over the past 4 years. Most will control debt, seek opportunity buys, explore alternative products and services that meet their needs, and try to save more money.

GDP is not likely to explode to historical growth rates of +3.5% on an annual basis. More likely, we’ll see a 2% figure, with some quarter’s falling below that level. Retailers should feel “somewhat more optimistic” this year. They just have to make sure they don’t think that they’ll find sustained +5% growth situations.

It will be a year of disciplined merchandise, store operations, and marketing execution focus.

Carol Spieckerman
Carol Spieckerman
11 years ago

One overlooked factor is the number of stores and new formats that retailers continue to open and the stores that wholesalers are opening as they push into owned retail (the first thing most do when they get a sugar daddy in the form of a private equity or mega-brand portfolio player). Same store sales declines aren’t always the result of soft demand.

M. Jericho Banks PhD
M. Jericho Banks PhD
11 years ago

My optimism for retail in 2013 comes from a belief that consumers have made great strides in rearranging their purchasing priorities over the past few years and are now prepared to be comfortable in the country’s new economic paradigm. Credit cards are getting paid down, there are remedies for foreclosures and most have already happened, and banks are becoming more open to lending the cash they’re hoarding.

I balance that with a pessimism created by the still-confusing, Obama-driven tax initiatives, both hidden (Obamacare) and out in the open. Costs are going up in ways that often come as surprises to the average citizen—and even many businesses.

I’m taking a wait-and-see position, but then, what other choice do we have?

Tom Redd
Tom Redd
11 years ago

Retailers seemed very optimistic at the show. Lots of dialogue around leveragaging more technology at their stores or within their other channels. Also extensive focus on getting their associates more involved with their shoppers via tech. A really BigShow for a really Big Retail year!

Alexander Rink
Alexander Rink
11 years ago

First of all, let me preface this post with a quick note that optimism is a function of the person, and I tend to be on the optimistic side! That said, I don’t think anyone could dispute the fact that an attendance rate increase of over 2,000 people between the 2012 and the 2013 show is a promising indicator for the retail industry. Furthermore, the fact that over 1,500 of the attendees this year were from Brazil bodes well for the global retail industry as a whole.