Mike Osorio's RetailWire Blog

June 10, 2009

FROM RETAILWIRE:
Classes have yet to let out for the summer but quite a few people in and around retailing are already looking toward the back-to-school season as the next test of just how well the business is coming along. What are you looking for in the upcoming back-to-school season?

MY COMMENTARY:
I do think we'll see signs of life this back-to-school season. The students themselves will drive some of it, because their spending power has not taken a hit from stock or housing losses. The best of the retailers out there will continue to innovate and offer cool must-have apparel. My concern is that with so many retailers still unable to get solid financing, most will play it safe, get too basic and alienate the core customer. The winners are likely to be the H&Ms of the world, who have shown the ability to continuously source and deliver great looks at terrific prices.

I predict a reasonably decent BTS, leading into a reasonably decent fall and holiday. But only because last year was so dismal. The weaker players will file Chapter 11 in growing numbers and the strong will significantly grow market share. Watch for newer niche players with no debt and interesting products/concepts to rise up.

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Retailers Get Ready for Back-to-School

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