Walmart back-to-school 2016
Photo: Walmart

What will back-to-school look like in 2016?

Consumers, feeling better about their personal finances and the state of the economy, plan to spend more on apparel, electronics and supplies for this year’s back-to-school and college season, according to a series of reports released this week.

In a phone conference yesterday, Ellen Davis, vice president of research and strategic initiatives at the National Retail Federation (NRF), described the results of this year’s back-to-school and college survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics as a return to “normal” spending patterns following a 2015 season when many made do with what they had.

Total spending for back-to-school and college is expected to reach $75.8 billion this year, up from $68 billion in 2015. The increase is largely due to more consumers being in the market for purchases this year. The average amount being spent for K-12 students is expected to grow to $673.57, up from $630.36 in 2015. Spending per college student is expected to decrease slightly from last year’s $899.18 to $888.71.

While consumers have been taught to wait out retailers in search of better deals, NRF found that many are planning to take care of their back-to-school shopping early this year. Seventy-three percent of families say they will shop a month or more in advance of the start of classes this year, versus 62 percent in 2015. Twenty-two percent plan to wait until the last week or two compared to 30 percent who answered the same for last year’s survey.

A lot more purchases are likely to be made online this year with 46 percent of parents telling NRF they plan to go the e-commerce route compared to 36 percent who answered the same in 2015. Fifty-four percent said they would opt to buy online and pick up in stores, while 89 percent are looking for free deliveries right to their doors.

Others releasing back-to-school reports include RetailMeNot, which found that 86 percent of parents plan to shop for back-to-school with 42 percent planning to spend between $100 and $500. Twelve percent plan to spend more than $500, according to the study.

Another survey conducted for Retale found that 85 percent of parents plan to use their smartphones to help them shop. That’s up from 78 percent in last year’s survey.

Discussion Questions

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS: What are your expectations for the 2016 back-to-school and college season? What will be the keys for retailers looking to grow share?

Poll

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Dick Seesel
Trusted Member
7 years ago

What jumps out is the 11 percent increase forecast by the NRF. The NRF’s forecasting is consistently too high (retailers are chronic optimists) but this number is really over the top. Yes, retail spending seems to be normalizing but there is little evidence — at least from general merchandisers’ second quarter sales results — that consumers are going to be delivering these kinds of increases. And within those sales gains — whether they are really 11 percent or, more realistically, in the mid-single digits — you can expect to see Amazon and other online retailers continuing to gain share at the expense of brick-and-mortar stores.

Kai Clarke
Kai Clarke
Active Member
7 years ago

We can expect a robust BTS season as our economy continues to improve, and online purchasing will continue to grow. Keys for retailers will be getting their message out early, as well as omnichannel marketing. Smart consumers will be price-sensitive and smart retailers will recognize this, advertising cost-competitive items and featuring these in their stores. I don’t think we will see the incredible growth that the article mentions, but a trending positive growth should be expected.

BrainTrust

"I don't think we will see the incredible growth that the article mentions, but a trending positive growth should be expected."

Kai Clarke

CEO, President- American Retail Consultants


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Adrian Weidmann

Managing Director, StoreStream Metrics, LLC


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Adrian Weidmann

Managing Director, StoreStream Metrics, LLC